One is a shot on goal. The other is a countdown clock

Every week my inbox fills with a version of the same question. This week it was two tickers retail can't stop trading: C4 Therapeutics ($CCCC) and Virgin Galactic ($SPCE). Both ignored by the big funds. Both "about to" do something enormous. Both the kind of bet that triples — or goes to zero.

So I did what I do: read the filings, the trial data, and — the part most people skip — the cash runway. The verdict isn't close. And the chart below is why.

CCCC — a real shot on goal

C4 Therapeutics does targeted protein degradation. In plain English: instead of just blocking a disease-causing protein, their drugs trick the cell into shredding it. The lead drug, cemsidomide, is an oral degrader for multiple myeloma — and the early data is the kind that makes oncologists lean forward: a 53% response rate at the top dose, with a safety profile clean enough to stack on top of other therapies. It's now in a registrational Phase 2.

Here's what separates this from a pure gamble — validation and money. Roche just signed a degrader-antibody deal worth north of a billion dollars in potential milestones and wrote a $20M check up front. Biogen and Merck KGaA are also at the table. And critically: C4 is funded into the end of 2028 — past the data readouts that actually move the stock. You're not betting on whether they survive to the catalyst. You're betting on the catalyst itself. That's the difference that matters.

The Street agrees, and rarely this cleanly: eight analysts, a unanimous Strong Buy, and an average target near $11.50 against a stock that — even after popping to a 52-week high on a competitor's myeloma win — still sits around $4.

SPCE — a beautiful brand on a countdown clock

I want to like Virgin Galactic. The brand is iconic. The business is not. It is pre-revenue — last quarter it booked roughly the price of a studio apartment in revenue while burning about $90 million. It has maybe two quarters of cash before it must raise again, and it just filed the shelf to do precisely that. (It already ran a 1-for-20 reverse split, so the price on your screen is cosmetic.)

And that 36% pop everyone got excited about? An investor disclosed a stake and the whole space sector caught a bid on SpaceX-IPO fever. That's a squeeze, not a thesis. Every quarter the spaceship doesn't fly, the clock ticks and the share count climbs. That's the opposite of what we're hunting for: a capped dream stapled to uncapped dilution.

In biotech you bet on data. In pre-revenue space, you bet they can raise cash faster than they burn it. I'll take the data.

THE BONUS · WATCH

RKLB — the one I'd actually wait to buy

If what pulls you toward SPCE is the frontier-tech itch, scratch it with the space company that actually ships: Rocket Lab ($RKLB). Two hundred million in quarterly revenue, growing 63%, a $2.2B backlog, finally swinging to positive EBITDA. The only problem is the tape — it's up ~440% in a year and now trades above where analysts peg it. Phenomenal company, demanding price. It's at the top of my watchlist for a pullback, not a chase at the high.

The bottom line

Of the two you asked about, I'll own the science over the dream: CCCC over SPCE, and it isn't close. One has real data, real big-pharma validation, and the balance sheet to reach the moments that matter. The other has a gorgeous logo and a cash clock. Rocket Lab is the better business than both — I just want it cheaper than this.

PAID SUBSCRIBERS · THIS WEEK'S NOTE

I'm sizing CCCC for the model portfolio this week.

The exact entry I'd add on, where my stop sits, the catalyst calendar into the 2027 readout, and the two TPD peers I'd buy alongside it. The thesis is free. The position is for subscribers.

Not investment advice. I may hold or initiate positions in the securities discussed. Micro-cap biotech and pre-revenue stocks are exceptionally volatile and can lose most or all of their value on a single trial result or financing — size positions accordingly and do your own work. Figures are drawn from the companies' most recent filings and consensus estimates as of June 2026 and will change.