Aviation - summer 2026

E Elena Marković Aviation analyst · Belgrade · ex-IATA 3 May Aviation · Summer 2026 Jet fuel is up thirty-one percent since November. Your summer flight will absorb most of it. I called this in October. I am not bragging - I am telling you that anyone watching the same chart could have called it. Brent rose. Refining margins widened. The summer travel forecast came in 8% above 2025. There was no scenario where July tickets stayed where they were in February. Here is the chart that actually matters - jet fuel (which is the airline's single largest controllable cost) versus consumer fares. Fuel moves first. Fares always follow, with a lag of about 90 days. The lag is closing. Tickets you book in May for August will reflect what fuel did in February. What this means in practical terms - if you are flying for leisure this summer, the cheapest tickets are gone. The next-cheapest tickets will be gone by mid-May. The advice everyone gives ("book early") is actually correct this year, more than usual. What this means for businesses - your travel and expenses budget needs a 12 to 18 percent increase for Q3 if you do not want a finance surprise in October. Tell your CFO now, not in August. One thing nobody is saying out loud: this is not a fuel crisis. This is normal. Jet fuel was abnormally cheap from 2023 to early 2025. We are returning to long-run averages. The headlines will call it a crisis because crisis sells. Operators should call it regression to the mean , plan accordingly, and stop refreshing news sites. · Aviation · Fuel · Travel 5 min read