The lesson from Nvidia isn't AI — it's position size

Nvidia grew revenue 77% year-over-year in 2024 on the back of the AI capex cycle. That's not the headline. The headline is: a large share of that revenue is from a single product category, and a top-10 customer concentration that's higher than most private companies would tolerate.

The company is a decade-long story of betting everything on one segment (graphics, then compute) and being right — twice. The moments they were wrong, it hurt.

If you run a business whose top customer represents more than 25% of revenue, or whose top product line is more than 60%, you're taking a position-size risk that needs an explicit plan. Not a "diversify at some point" intention — a plan.