#invest. PUBlish

David FabInvestor6d ago3 min read

Is the S&P 500 still worth it — and is it riskier than ever?

Short answer: Yes, riskier than ever on most objective measures. No, that doesn't mean stop investing. But it means understanding what you're actually buying.

The valuation picture (May 2026)

The S&P 500 sits at ~7,411, and the Shiller CAPE ratio is around 41.6 — more than twice the long-run average of 17.3, and the second-highest reading in 140+ years of US market history. Only the December 1999 dot-com peak of 44.19 was richer. Implied future annual return at this level: ~1.5%. Gotrade GuruFocus

For context: today's reading sits well above the 1929 pre-crash level (~32) and the 2007 pre-financial-crisis peak (~27). Gotrade

The concentration problem

This is the bigger structural issue, and it's genuinely unprecedented:

The 10 largest companies now control roughly 40% of the entire index by market cap — exceeding the dot-com bubble peak, when the top 10 held around 27%. INDmoney
In a recent 28-session rally between late March and early May 2026, just 10 stocks drove 69% of the index's gains. INDmoney