Are we seeing the signs of another war in Eastern Europe?

I have been thinking about this a lot recently and not because I believe war is about to start in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia or Poland, but because if you live in Eastern Europe, you can see that something has changed. So I decided to look beyond social media headlines and actually check what governments, intelligence services, NATO and the EU are saying, and the answer is interesting. There are real reasons to be more alert. But there are also very good reasons not to panic. Read till the end and let me know what you think about this

What would I look for if a serious military crisis was approaching? There are several signs.

1. Large-scale military mobilisation

Not just exercises but you would start seeing large numbers of troops, reserves and equipment being moved towards the border.You would see ammunition, fuel, field hospitals, logistics units and air defence moving with them. One exercise means very little. A sustained logistical build-up is different.

2. Sudden movement of Russian forces away from Ukraine

This would be one of the biggest things to watch. Lithuanian intelligence says Russia is rebuilding and expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders, but at the same time, Russia is still using enormous resources in Ukrain. So Lithuanian assessment says that while Russia remains heavily committed to the war in Ukraine, its ability to create a major military threat elsewhere is limited. (VSD)

That is important that the third point 👇

3. NATO starts moving from deterrence to emergency deployment

NATO has already strengthened the eastern flank significantly. There are more troops, aircraft, air defence, surveillance and multinational forces. NATO has also created Eastern Sentry and established a new multinational battlegroup in Finland. But this is not evidence that war is about to start. It is largely the opposite. It is deterrence in my opinion and the idea is simple - make the cost of attacking a NATO country so high that Russia decides not to do it. (NATO) this one gives me hope that we are not alone

4. Hybrid attacks increase

This is probably the most realistic threat right now: cyberattacks, GPS jamming, and we all might be experiencing this using gps systems in our phones, also drone incursions. Sabotage. Arson. Attacks on infrastructure. Disinformation. Attempts to create political instability, and NATO itself says these activities have been increasing. (NATO)

And this is not theoretical. Only days ago, Estonia was investigating a possible Russian connection to an arson attack involving a defence technology company. There have also been repeated drone incidents around NATO airspace. A NATO fighter even shot down a suspected Russian drone over Romania this month. (Reuters) That is worrying, but it is still very different from a conventional invasion. On another note it feels like the boiling frog effect.

5. Critical infrastructure suddenly becomes heavily protected

This is another thing worth watching. Power plants. Bridges. Railways. Ports. Airports. Gas infrastructure. Undersea cables. Telecommunications.

Lithuania, Latvia and Poland have already increased protection around critical infrastructure following intelligence warnings about possible Russian provocations. (Reuters) Again, this does not mean war is coming, or should I say - happening, it means governments are preparing for something that could happen. So should people in Eastern Europe worry? My simple answer is - Yes. But I would separate worry from preparedness. The most important piece of information I found came from the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.Its February 2026 assessment said that Russia had no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or another NATO member during 2026. It also said that Estonia and Europe have taken steps that force Moscow to calculate very carefully what it can risk. (Välisluureamet), that is probably the most reassuring part of this entire investigation. At the same time, Lithuanian intelligence is much more cautious about the longer term. And that worries me a lot!

Its assessment says Russia is expanding its military capabilities, reforming its armed forces and preparing for a possible future confrontation with NATO. It also warns that a reduction in Western pressure on Moscow could accelerate those preparations. (VSD), So the message is not: “War is coming.” It is more like - “Russia is rebuilding its ability to fight, so Europe needs to make sure Russia never believes attacking NATO is worth the risk.” And that distinction matters.

Another question- What about ordinary people? This is where I think we sometimes get the conversation wrong. You do not need to build a bunker or leave eastern europe, you do not need to panic-buy food, or spend every evening watching tv news, but you should be prepared for disruption. The EU itself now recommends building the ability for households to manage for at least 72 hours during a serious emergency. And the EU preparedness strategy covers much more than war. Same what we already talked about:

• Cyberattacks.

• Energy disruption.

• Natural disasters.

• Health emergencies.

• Geopolitical crises.

• Information attacks.

(European Commission)

So having some water, food, medication, power banks, cash, torches and knowing where official emergency information comes from is simply sensible. It is not “preparing for World War III”, it is basic resilience. I guess. Again - keep in mind that I’m writing this using AI and a lot I would say is smart answers from the AI I personally would say in a different context but it would be more like my emotional state than real situation that is happening right now. The signs I would really start worrying about if several of these happened together, I would take the situation much more seriously:

• large-scale Russian mobilisation away from Ukraine

• major military logistics moving towards NATO borders

• unusual Russian reserve mobilisation

• large-scale evacuation of Russian diplomatic personnel

• closure of borders or major airspace restrictions

• NATO moving large forces into combat positions rather than exercises

• emergency government communications to citizens

• major disruption of electricity, communications or transport

• repeated attacks on critical infrastructure

• simultaneous cyberattacks and physical sabotage across several countries

• a serious military incident involving Russian and NATO forces with casualties

Eastern Europe is not sitting alone. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Finland and other countries are NATO members. An attack on one NATO member is not simply a war between Russia and that country. It potentially activates the collective defence system of the Alliance. That is exactly why NATO is investing so heavily in the eastern flank. And why Russia has to consider the consequences very carefully. (NATO)

So, should we worry? I would say we should pay attention. There is a genuine security problem in Eastern Europe. There is a real increase in hybrid attacks. Russia is rebuilding its military. The war in Ukraine is still ongoing. And the Baltic region is clearly one of the areas where NATO and Russia are testing each other’s capabilities. But based on the current public intelligence assessments, I would not interpret the situation as “war is about to start”. I would interpret it as: Europe has finally realised that peace cannot be taken for granted. And perhaps the best thing ordinary people can do is not panic, stay informed and know the difference between a real warning and a viral social media noise. And keep living your life!

Because preparedness is useful - panic is not.