The US becoming less predictable

Something very interesting is happening.

The UK is facing stronger pressure from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland about their future inside the union. At the same time, Canada is openly looking at a much deeper relationship with the European Union. BTW - not full EU membership. At least not now, but Canada is discussing something closer to an associate relationship with Europe, covering trade, defence, research, education and movement between countries. The main reason is simple. Canada wants to depend less on the US. Around 70% of Canadian exports still go there.

And look at the UK.

Scotland voted 62% to remain in the EU in 2016. The Scottish Government is still openly saying that its preferred future is independence followed by EU membership. Now leaders in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are talking much more openly about constitutional change. But this does NOT mean the UK is about to disappear tomorrow. Scotland remains divided roughly 50/50 on independence, while support is lower in Wales.

So why is all this happening? Is it true that the world is becoming less comfortable? Trade wars. Defence. Energy. AI. Critical minerals. Russia. China. The US becoming less predictable...

There is a strange irony here.

Ten years after Brexit, instead of everyone running away from large political and economic blocs, we may be entering a period where countries are looking for MORE alliances, not fewer. Maybe the big lesson is this: Independence does not necessarily mean standing alone. It may simply mean choosing who you want to depend on, or stand wth?